Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.049959 0.056727 0.064287 0.073397 0.084130 0.096436 0.111703
2026-01-11 0.041018 0.049718 0.060254 0.074093 0.092006 0.114702 0.146114
2026-01-18 0.034387 0.044075 0.056656 0.074506 0.099700 0.134812 0.188959
2026-01-25 0.028552 0.038410 0.052022 0.072722 0.104379 0.152699 0.235666
2026-02-01 0.023580 0.033079 0.046920 0.069320 0.106205 0.167576 0.284706
2026-02-08 0.020541 0.030018 0.044581 0.069676 0.114280 0.195638 0.370198
2026-02-15 0.018077 0.027430 0.042530 0.070145 0.123018 0.228774 0.485221
2026-02-22 0.016201 0.025474 0.041168 0.071593 0.134345 0.272398 0.654388
2026-03-01 0.014572 0.023672 0.039761 0.072711 0.145739 0.322393 0.883357
2026-03-08 0.012888 0.021520 0.037359 0.071378 0.151736 0.363697 1.131373
2026-03-15 0.011085 0.018901 0.033658 0.066544 0.148245 0.379459 1.315476
2026-03-22 0.010106 0.017671 0.032457 0.066943 0.158217 0.441026 1.770939
2026-03-29 0.009360 0.016805 0.031899 0.068867 0.173752 0.533880 2.560031
2026-04-05 0.008599 0.015803 0.030891 0.069516 0.186372 0.628943 3.615546
2026-04-12 0.007913 0.014861 0.029860 0.069902 0.198808 0.737239 5.145009
2026-04-19 0.007181 0.013726 0.028212 0.068255 0.204128 0.822294 6.876104
2026-04-26 0.006453 0.012511 0.026192 0.065107 0.203062 0.878206 8.650768
2026-05-03 0.006008 0.011860 0.025422 0.065440 0.215681 1.026883 12.805503
2026-05-10 0.005617 0.011280 0.024733 0.065876 0.229373 1.205534 19.527452
2026-05-17 0.005308 0.010849 0.024352 0.067218 0.248190 1.455219 32.310090
2026-05-24 0.005015 0.010419 0.023905 0.068255 0.266714 1.744998 54.863657
2026-05-31 0.004661 0.009804 0.022872 0.067022 0.273752 1.956678 83.719421
2026-06-07 0.004223 0.008941 0.021046 0.062543 0.261714 1.965454 101.138241